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Quantifying variability in, and identifying the mechanisms behind, East Asian dust production and transport across the last several million years is essential for constraining future dust emissions and deposition. Our current understanding of East Asian dust dynamics through the Quaternary is primarily limited to low‐resolution records from the North Pacific Ocean, those from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), and paleoenvironmental reconstructions from arid basins. All are susceptible to sediment winnowing and focusing as well as input of poorly constrained or unidentified non‐dust detrital material. To avoid these limitations, we examine high‐resolution, constant flux proxy‐derived dust fluxes from the North Pacific and find evidence for higher glacial dust fluxes in the late Pliocene‐early Pleistocene compared to the late Pleistocene‐Holocene. Our results suggest decreasing dust transported to the mid‐latitude North Pacific Ocean from eastern Asia across the Quaternary. This observation is ostensibly at odds with previous dust records from marine sediments and the CLP, and with the perception of higher East Asian dust production and transport during the late Pleistocene associated with the amplification of glaciations. We provide three possible scenarios to describe the ∼2,700‐ky evolution of eastern Asia glacial dust dynamics, and discuss them in the context of sediment production, availability, and atmospheric circulation. Our data and proposed driving mechanisms not only raise questions about the framework typically used to interpret dust archives from East Asia and the North Pacific Ocean, but also provide a roadmap for hypothesis testing and future work necessary to produce better‐constrained records of paleo‐dust fluxes.

 

As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation—a practice that we argue should be widely adopted. 

The Western Equatorial Pacific (WEP) warm pool, with surface temperatures >28 °C and a deep thermocline, is an important source of latent and sensible heat for the global climate system. Because the tropics are not sensitive to ice‐albedo feedbacks, the WEP's response to radiative forcing can be used to constrain a minimum estimate of Earth system sensitivity. Climate modeling ofpCO₂‐radiative warming projections shows little change in WEP variability; here we use temperature distributions of individual surface and subsurface dwelling fossil foraminifera to evaluate past variability and possible radiative and dynamic climate forcing over the Plio‐Pleistocene. We investigate WEP warm pool variability within paired glacial‐interglacial (G‐IG) intervals for four times: the Holocene‐Last Glacial Maximum, ~2, ~3, and ~4 Ma. Our results show that these surface and subsurface temperature distributions are similar for all G‐IG pairs, indicating no change in variability, even aspCO₂‐radiative forcing and other boundary conditions changed on G‐IG timescales. Plio‐Pleistocene sea surface temperature (SST) distributions are similar to those from the Holocene, indicating WEP SSTs respond topCO₂‐radiative forcing and associated feedbacks. In contrast, Plio‐Pleistocene subsurface temperature distributions suggest subsurface temperatures respond to changes in thermocline temperature and depth. We estimate tropical temperature sensitivity for the mid‐Pliocene (~3 Ma) using our individual foraminifera SST data set and a previously published high‐resolution boron isotope‐basedpCO₂reconstruction. We find tropical temperature sensitivity was equal to, or less than, that of the Late Pleistocene.